On The Contrary: Santa Anita’s Most Playable Longshots on Thursday


>>Thursday March 31st | Go To TFUS PPs for today’s races at Santa Anita

Note: The goal of “On The Contrary” is to point out several horses every day who may be overlooked in the wagering and who can possibly add value to trifectas and superfectas (in high holes and low) and to Pick 3s, Pick 4s, etc. We will not be making “selections” per se in “On the Contrary.” Rather, we’ll encourage readers to give extra consideration to certain horses who may seem a little overmatched at first glance–but who are in fact the type of horses we often build our bets around. >>See related interview on betting longshots.

Race 2:

Lirica Heat:

8-1 on ML:

She routes just as well as she runs down the hill. That is not saying all that much, of course, and she is 0 for 24 lifetime, but she draws well, and she’ll be a price again, and she really does not figure all that far off of these.

Race 3:


12-1 on ML:

Broke slowly and then compounded the felony by stumbling slightly on top of it. This put her in a hopeless position in a 5.5F race. But she advanced some on the backstretch, raced wide, and made something that looked a little bit like a late run. In light with the apprentice today, she should be better off with the stretch out to 7F. Can be involved in this thing at a big price if she finally breaks reasonably well.

Race 6:


20-1 on ML:

He looks surprisingly competitive on our speed figures, and Pace Projector shows him in striking distance early, just off a projected soft pace. He has been effective at this distance and has a shot at getting into the exotics at a huge price.

Race 8:

Mother Flower:

12-1 on ML:

We are breaking just about every rule in the book by being mildly interested in this particular first-time starter. But that should make the price huge. This field is pretty soft. This filly has been training as if there might be just a little bit of horse here. At minimum we would not exclude her from exotics.

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