We’re upon a welcome turning point in the New York racing calendar, as the curtain is drawn on the 2015-2016 Aqueduct inner track meet with today’s finale.
Lil Renegade (#9) owns the best recent form, but she’s had her chances at this level and has failed to break through as of yet. This was especially true last time, when she was fresh off a remarkable performance on January 7, a day when she clearly should have won if not for trouble on the backstretch. Yet, despite the fact that her form was superior, she ran to the level of her competition and found a way to lose.
We have to use her, but we believe that her main rival, MARY’S IN UTOPIA (#8), is the more attractive option.
While Mary’s in Utopia has also had her fair share of chances, she’s spent a good portion of her career facing tougher company and running on turf. We believe she received a subtly positive trainer switch to Steven Jerkens prior to her last race, and she actually ran much better than it appears in that spot. After breaking a half-step slowly, she found trouble at multiple points down the backstretch and around the far turn and had basically been shuffled out of the race by the time the field reached the stretch. She has more speed than she showed that day, and it should be on display from this outside post position.
We’ll focus on getting Mary’s in Utopia to win this final race of the inner track meet. In addition to Lil Renegade, we’ll also throw Naughty Grace (#3) and Double Mane (#6) into larger exacta and trifecta wagers.