On The Contrary: Santa Anita’s Most Playable Longshots on Friday

DontLetTheGamePassYouByfortfus

>>Friday March 25th| Go To TFUS PPs for today’s races at Santa Anita

Note: The goal of “On The Contrary” is to point out several horses every day who may be overlooked in the wagering and who can possibly add value to trifectas and superfectas (in high holes and low) and to Pick 3s, Pick 4s, etc. We will not be making “selections” per se in “On the Contrary.” Rather, we’ll encourage readers to give extra consideration to certain horses who may seem a little overmatched at first glance–but who are in fact the type of horses we often build our bets around. >>See related interview on betting longshots.

Race 1:

Toppers Sunshine:

6-1 on ML:

Diodoro specializes (100 rating) in this sort of layoff. The horse has run well off this sort of layoff. She has also trained very well. She is not as talented as these, but a nice trip could get her into exotics at a price.

Race 2:

Raised a Secret:

4-1 on ML:

Again, not the most talented horse in here, but can possibly close the talent gap by getting a sweet trip in this short field behind what we hope will be some aggressively ridden frontrunners. That could well be enough to land him in the exacta.

Race 3:

Ultimate Luck:

15-1 on ML:

This gelding is outclassed in a pretty bad way. What we’re hoping is that he’ll revert to a closing style, hug the rail with this rider (whom the crowd shuns), and not get ambitious. That could get him into exotics at a large price.

Race 4:

Dalmore:

5-1 on ML:

Lacks the breeding some of these have, and lacks the talent of Uninvited, but we feel that a few of these will not fire today, and that could leave Dalmore (who has been training beautifully) with less to do. Would definitely use in the trifecta.

Race 6:

Call Saul:

10-1 on ML:

Well-named colt draws poorly, and we are having a hard time seeing him getting a decent trip, but he handled dirt in his debut, and we find this claim-and-ship-to-dirt move by Dean Greenman interesting enough to include this horse in supers at a big price. His synthetic efforts were not all that bad. Plus there is a slight chance that the stretch-out sprinters will go crazy and leave Call Saul in a decent spot should Kent D decide to fall back to last out of the gate.

Race 8:

I’ll Wrap It Up:

6-1 on ML:

Not as talented as Mr. Sexy but figures for a trip in this speed-clogged field and seems likely to get involved late. Handles this tricky hill quite professionally. Useful exotics horse, at minimum.

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