Despite the fact that the Pace Projector places her on a clear early lead in a situation that is likely to favor horses near the front, we cannot trust favored #2 Angel Code.
This filly was in excellent form while going out for some top barns towards the end of her 2015 campaign. However, she has been away for over four months since being claimed for $62,500 by Bruce Levine and now shows up for a $25,000 tag. Furthermore, Levine does not have strong numbers off layoffs of this type, getting just a 41 trainer rating in that category. Given what figures to be a short price, we’ll let her beat us.
Some may consider Time for Angie (#5) to be a viable alternative as she seeks her sixth straight victory. However, those wins have come against softer company. She is stepping up to face a tougher field today. Aix En Provence (#1) is not impossible, but she figures to be an underlay as the remaining weaker half of a formerly coupled entry.
Our top selection is WRAITH (#3).
This mare ran deceptively well last time, in a race that did not really set up for a closer as she was making her first start for Chris Englehart, a 67-rated first-off-the-claim trainer. Though she took a step forward that day, Englehart does far better second time off the claim, getting a 100 trainer rating in that category. In such a compact field, Wraith should be able to avoid getting completely outrun in the early stages. This is a race in which the favorite appears to be on the downswing, and Wraith, who is in great form, may be able to mow them all down at a square price.