Note: The goal of “On The Contrary” is to point out several horses every day who may be overlooked in the wagering and who can possibly add value to trifectas and superfectas (in high holes and low) and to Pick 3s, Pick 4s, etc. We will not be making “selections” per se in “On the Contrary.” Rather, we’ll encourage readers to give extra consideration to certain horses who may seem a little overmatched at first glance–but who are in fact the type of horses we often build our bets around. >>See related interview on betting longshots.
5-1 on ML:
Goes 3rd off the short layoff. Odds may drift because there are a few high-powered barns who have lightly raced horses in here. Has a pleasing style and the best last-out speed figure in the field. Would definitely use this one in trifectas.
20-1 on ML:
She showed very little in her debut, but she did show a hint of early foot after breaking poorly. Returned to train pretty well. Trainer is less bad 2nd out than he is in debuts. This is a soft field, which might allow this filly to get into exotics at a big price.
Warren’s Jen Fizz:
30-1 on ML:
Her best form last year can play in here. In light with a hustling rider. Draws a good post. Has been training as if she is about to take a step back toward her best. Ran big at this distance last year.
6-1 on ML:
Her pace-adjusted speed figures show her as competitive with these. Has the fastest Early Pace rating in the field. We do not trust her a bit. We would need something quite a bit higher than the ML odds—since she has essentially zero chance if she cannot manage to clear off early.
8-1 on ML:
Solid gelding draws well, has a pleasing style, is proven at this level, and looks like a big threat to be in the trifecta.
6-1 on ML:
Drops in class, loses the blinkers, gets in light, fits on figures, has been training well enough, and may get some pace to run at because of the sprinter just to his outside.