On The Contrary: Santa Anita’s Most Playable Longshots on Sunday

DontLetTheGamePassYouByfortfus

>>Sunday March 20th| Go To TFUS PPs for today’s races at Santa Anita

Note: The goal of “On The Contrary” is to point out several horses every day who may be overlooked in the wagering and who can possibly add value to trifectas and superfectas (in high holes and low) and to Pick 3s, Pick 4s, etc. We will not be making “selections” per se in “On the Contrary.” Rather, we’ll encourage readers to give extra consideration to certain horses who may seem a little overmatched at first glance–but who are in fact the type of horses we often build our bets around. >>See related interview on betting longshots.

Race 1:

Aikau:

4-1 on ML:

This ML seems too low because the Puype gelding figures to get pounded off positive clocker reviews. Aikau is a first-time starter with awful breeding and Los Alamitos connections. We would need something like double-digit odds to use this five-year-old gelding.  Only thing in his favor is that he has been training like a frontrunner and this race is 5F.

Race 2:

Defiant One:

8-1 on ML:

This gelding dug down and found a huge race last time. Better than it looks on paper. Can spring upset with a repeat, and can land in exacta or trifecta if backing up by the standard few points.

Race 3:

Amaranth:

12-1 on ML:

The Baffert filly is going to hide from these if she runs as she has been training. But if Baffert has Bejarano (who can strangle a frontrunner when he wants to) taking a hold, Amaranth may remain strong enough to stay in the trifecta at a price after Fantastic Style runs by her.

Race 4:

Lovely Raquel:

30-1 on ML:

This is really pushing it, but this filly ran an exceedingly odd race down the hill in her debut. Will be a gigantic price and is eligible to improve enough to flirt with the south end of the super here.

Gust:

8-1 on ML:

Miller filly is up in class and on the grass today. Draws well, should handle the surface, can be around late at a price.

Race 5:

Carlot Cowboy:

12-1 on ML:

Ridiculous trip last time did him no justice. Can run with these at a price.

Race 6:

Gotham News:

10-1 on ML:

Ran pretty well on dirt. Back on grass here. Superb trainer uses Bejarano. Can certainly get into trifecta if firing as expected.

Race 7:

Trinitas Soldier:

6-1 on ML:

Brutal trip last time. Ran well considering. Down in class. Training poorly, but trained poorly into his previous race too. Like the blinkers off. Loathe playing new geldings in maiden races. Mixed signals. Need price.

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