On The Contrary: Santa Anita’s Most Playable Longshots on Saturday


>>Saturday March 19th| Go To TFUS PPs for today’s races at Santa Anita

Note: The goal of “On The Contrary” is to point out several horses every day who may be overlooked in the wagering and who can possibly add value to trifectas and superfectas (in high holes and low) and to Pick 3s, Pick 4s, etc. We will not be making “selections” per se in “On the Contrary.” Rather, we’ll encourage readers to give extra consideration to certain horses who may seem a little overmatched at first glance–but who are in fact the type of horses we often build our bets around. >>See related interview on betting longshots.

Race 2:


12-1 on ML:

Hard to see a win coming against these, but this mare gets back on the grass, goes third off the layoff, projects to be in striking distance early, has old speed figures worth aiming at, and has been training superbly. Seems to have a shot at exotics as much the largest price on the ML.

Race 3:

Edgy Girl:

6-1 on ML:

This is as bad as rider switches get. That will almost certainly hurt the trip but help the price in a big way. If this filly is well meant today (a big “if”), she has the early speed to stay in touch and enough late speed to possibly hang around for exotic purposes at a price higher than the ML.

Race 5:

Que Chistoso:

20-1 on ML:

Can make late run into the super at a giant price if handling grass.

Race 6:

Lil Jessica:

5-1 on ML:

The A/E scratch of the Hess filly possibly leaves this one in control of the pace, given her strong Early Pace figure. At this distance that is a huge edge. Plus she fits in other respects. Our main concern is the Miller firster. Miller trains them to pop the gate and go, and that could well thwart Lil Jessica. But we will take our chances.

Race 7:

Emotional Drive:

20-1 on ML:

Pace Projector puts her on a clear lead. Plus she is way down in class and has run decent figures. Let’s hope she gets out of the gate because she will almost certainly do nothing if she is obliged to take dirt early.

Race 8:

Bluegrass Bronco:

12-1 on ML:

Ran a monster race (116), by his standards, the only time he cleared off early. That does not prove that clearing off makes him better. It could be that when he is ready to fire his best shot, this is reflected in his having more early speed. But we are not inclined to quibble over cause and effect at high odds. Pace Projector shows him leading early today. Plus he has been training well since dumping Pedroza at the start. (And it figures that Martin would ride him back.)

Race 10:


12-1 on ML:

Firster goes for good barn and has been training fairly well. Has decent breeding for precocity. Would not exclude from supers at a big price.

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