On The Contrary: Santa Anita’s Most Playable Longshots on Sunday


>>Sunday March 13th| Go To TFUS PPs for today’s races at Santa Anita

Note: The goal of “On The Contrary” is to point out several horses every day who may be overlooked in the wagering and who can possibly add value to trifectas and superfectas (in high holes and low) and to Pick 3s, Pick 4s, etc. We will not be making “selections” per se in “On the Contrary.” Rather, we’ll encourage readers to give extra consideration to certain horses who may seem a little overmatched at first glance–but who are in fact the type of horses we often build our bets around. >>See related interview on betting longshots.

 Race 1:

Son of a Royal:

9-2 on ML:

Crowd won’t bet this trainer. Comes off a lousy workout eight days ago, but he also trained poorly going into his strong race (figure of 96) in February. Pace Projector has him on the early lead on the cutback. Would definitely include in trifectas.

Race 3:

It’s the Ice:

6-1 on ML:

The favorite will be very tough at a microscopic price. This gelding will be on a clear early lead on soft fractions, according to Pace Projector. Ran big (107 figure) last time after setting a strong pace. Could make the favorite work for the win if he’s able to put these to sleep early.

Race 4:


8-1 on ML:

Showed nothing off the layoff. Returned to train very well for a sharp trainer. Six-year-old with three lifetime races is plainly not trustworthy, but this type often has precisely one good race to fire in a campaign, and it will usually come early in the campaign, and we sure did not see it three weeks ago. Would not exclude from exotics if the price is there.

Race 6:

Kill Shot:

15-1 on ML:

His last two races do him little justice. If he doesn’t mind coming from off the pace on dirt, he can make a late run into the trifecta here at a big price.

Race 8:

Southern Freedom:

12-1 on ML:

If everything falls into place (he walks on the lead and saves ground around all three turns and fires his best shot), he has a chance to hang around for the bottom of exotics at a big price.

Race 9:

Six S Street:

8-1 on ML:

First-time starter has shown gate speed in the morning (which can go a long way at this distance) and has decent breeding for a firster debuting at the bottom of the ladder.

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