There are a plethora of speed types in this race, which, unsurprisingly, has resulted in the Pace Projector predicting a fast pace. That should make the tasks of likely pace players True Romance and Awesome News more difficult, and help the late runners.
The closer likely to take the most money is Sweetrayofsunshine (#3), who makes her first start off the claim by David Jacobson. This 7-year-old has always been honest, winning 10 of 22 career starts, but she exits a race in which she received a flashy 112 speed figure, far higher than anything she had run previously. If she repeats that number here, she’ll almost certainly win. On the other hand, if she reverts back to her prior speed figures, she’s merely another player in a wide-open race. We’re wary of taking a short price on her, especially given David Jacobson’s relatively poor recent run with his claims.
We instead want a different closer, one who should be a much bigger price.
FLARING (#7) ran better than it appears two back when she raced three- to four-wide around the turn. Despite covering more ground than today’s rivals True Romance and Awesome News, she still stayed on well through the stretch. Her last race may look disappointing, but she was compromised by a slow pace (color-coded in blue). We believe that she’s coming into this race in some of the best form of her career, and she figures to get a favorable setup. At a price of 8/1 or greater, she’d offer excellent value.
Exacta Box (Primary): 3,7
Exacta Key Box (Backup): 7 with 5,6,9