On The Contrary: Santa Anita’s Most Playable Longshots on Big Cap Saturday


>>Saturday March 12th| Go To TFUS PPs for today’s races at Santa Anita

Note: The goal of “On The Contrary” is to point out several horses every day who may be overlooked in the wagering and who can possibly add value to trifectas and superfectas (in high holes and low) and to Pick 3s, Pick 4s, etc. We will not be making “selections” per se in “On the Contrary.” Rather, we’ll encourage readers to give extra consideration to certain horses who may seem a little overmatched at first glance–but who are in fact the type of horses we often build our bets around. >>See related interview on betting longshots.

Race 2:

Revenue Virginius:

15-1 on ML:

This race has come off the grass, and that would seem to make Revenue Virginius something close to a contender at a price as she steps up in class. Unlike several of her opponents, she has proven herself on dirt. She lacks the talent of her opponents. However, she can hit the trifecta with her usual effort if a few of these fail to fire on dirt.

Race 3:

Moscato Girl:

12-1 on ML:

This mare’s recent form leaves plenty to be desired. But the combination of the good post position, light weight with the apprentice up, and (much more important) massive trainer switch to Peter Miller has the potential to produce a much better effort today at a big price.

Race 4:

Smart Win:

12-1 on ML:

Has run two solid races while missing the board. Both efforts were somewhat obscured by extenuating circumstances. Chance to hit the trifecta here at a price.

Race 5:

Street to Indy:

10-1 on ML:

First-time starter with quiet connections might be lost in the shuffle in a race that has many directions for bettors to go in. A win seems highly improbable, but we would not exclude this one from supers if the odds sail above the ML.

Race 6:

What a View:

8-1 on ML:

There are three longshots in here, but this is the only one we have any fond feelings for at all. A little light on speed figures but was visually impressive blowing a Cal-bred stake apart and might be able to hang around for the trifecta in a race packed with talent.

Race 8:

Tristan’s Trilogy:

12-1 on ML:

Toss that last race and he’s an exotics contender at a price.

Race 11:

Kiss N Scat:

8-1 on ML:

Has the fastest last-out speed figure in the field and handles grass just fine. She has been running up north, which will help her price (if not her chances).

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