Pace is sure to play a significant role in this race, especially after the scratch of the likely speed Leave the Light On, since the majority of the entrants are late-running plodders.
The horse likely to go off favored is Send It In (#1), who is looking for his fourth consecutive victory as he continues to advance through his allowance conditions. He’s certainly a player in this race and has the ability to place himself within a couple lengths of the early pace, which should serve him well in this spot. However, he probably needs slight speed figure improvement to come out on top, and we’re not inclined to wager on that outcome at a short price.
Farhaan (#4) and Bullheaded Boy (#5) both come out of sound defeats in a race at this level. Both are certainly good enough to win this race, but neither possesses much early speed. If an honest pace were on tap, we could support either one of them, but they’re hard to endorse given the projected dynamics of this race.
Lieutenant Seany O (#3) has shown improved tactical speed in recent starts and has an aggressive rider on his back today in Kendrick Carmouche. We’d be more interested in him if not for his recent dull effort when using aggressive tactics in the same race Farhaan and Bullheaded Boy are exiting. Nevertheless, at a large price, he may be worth throwing into the mix.
Our top selection is SECOND CITY (#2).
This regally bred son of Distorted Humor made a favorable impression in his first start for Chris Englehart last time. He tracked the pace and exploded when let loose in the lane, quickly drawing off to a five-length victory. That was against a much softer field, but Chris Englehart, who gets just a 76 trainer rating with horses making their first starts after a trainer switch, receives an excellent 100 rating when those horses make their second starts for his barn.
We like the confidence they’re showing by stepping Second City up in class, and, with the scratch of Leave the Light On, he should find himself on a clear lead early.
Trifecta: 2 with 1,3 with 1,3,4,5,7
Trifecta: 2 with 4,5,7 with 1,3