On The Contrary: Santa Anita’s Most Playable Longshots on Friday


>>Friday March 11th| Go To TFUS PPs for today’s races at Santa Anita

Note: The goal of “On The Contrary” is to point out several horses every day who may be overlooked in the wagering and who can possibly add value to trifectas and superfectas (in high holes and low) and to Pick 3s, Pick 4s, etc. We will not be making “selections” per se in “On the Contrary.” Rather, we’ll encourage readers to give extra consideration to certain horses who may seem a little overmatched at first glance–but who are in fact the type of horses we often build our bets around. >>See related interview on betting longshots.

 Race 3:

Big Break:

10-1 on ML:

Longest shot on the ML has speed on the cutback and some competitive pace-adjusted figures. In light with good rider and had 3F gate work that suggests Knapp will not try to rate her. Chance to hit trifecta at a price.

Race 5:


20-1 on ML:

This one is really a reach, but that is what this column is for. This gelding has decent old races over minor tracks in Iowa, Texas, and Oklahoma. Did nothing at SA in December. Improved, running better than it looks, in an 870-yard race at Los Al. Runs at the right distance this time. Not out of the question for the superfecta if taking a step back toward his non-awful races from last year.

Race 6:

Jimmy Shoes:

6-1 on ML:

First-time starter has been training decently. Lands in field that has talent on the inside and outside of the gate but seems lacking in the slots in between. His breeding has a modicum of turf and a smidgen of precocity. Trainer is adequate with firsters. Would not exclude from exotics.

Race 8:

Boldly True:

8-1 on ML:

We like the early speed shown on synthetic up north. Will give this one  a chance to hang around for exotics at a price.

Race 9:

B K Miss:

20-1 on ML:

Two Knapps in one day breaks our record. Filly lands in awful field and should appreciate the cutback. She has a legitimate shot at the superfecta with her usual sprint effort.

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