Legend of Lorelei (#1) probably deserves to be favored considering that she’s run the fastest speed figures overall and is one of the few runners in this race to have handled the distance. However, her most recent start was uncharacteristically poor. She has been claimed out of that race by Danny Gargan, who gets a 90 rating first off the claim. Yet, despite his strong numbers with claiming dropdowns, it is somewhat disconcerting that he immediately drops her in for the bottom-level $25,000 tag.
The others that possess route experience are less appealing. For Later (#10) was second at this level last time, but she was unlucky at the draw, getting stuck out in post position 10. Long shot Chasin Outlaws (#9) is a mildly interesting trifecta player as she gets a positive rider switch and adds blinkers for the first time, but her prior form is hard to get excited about.
There are also a number of runners stretching out in distance. Two that are likely to take money are One Sharp Cat and Social Mobility, but we are a little skeptical of their chances. One Sharp Cat (#2) underperformed as the 3/2 favorite last time while making her first start off the claim for Linda Rice. This stretch-out in distance feels more like a move of desperation than a calculated plan. We’re also less than thrilled with Social Mobility (#3) negotiating this two-turn distance, despite the huge trainer upgrade to MIchelle Nevin, since her dam was a pure sprinter.
The stretching-out runner that we’re most interested in is long shot COLONEL JEN (#4).
She was obviously overmatched against maiden special weight company in her debut, but we thought she showed subtle improvement last time on the drop in class. Colonel Jen was forced to race in behind horses, taking dirt in her face, after breaking from the inside post position. She was still displaying some greenness in upper stretch, but we like the way she finished up once Mike Luzzi was able to get her out into the clear. Her pedigree indicates that two turns should be no problem. Her sire, Colonel John, is a route influence, and her dam won going long on turf. Carlos Martin gets a solid 71 rating with horses trying routes for the first time, and has done especially well with maidens in that category. It’s likely that Colonel Jen still has some upside, and the price should be fair.
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,9,10