On The Contrary: Santa Anita’s Most Playable Longshots on Thursday

DontLetTheGamePassYouByfortfus

>>Thursday March 3rd| Go To TFUS PPs for today’s races at Santa Anita

Note: The goal of “On The Contrary” is to point out several horses every day who may be overlooked in the wagering and who can possibly add value to trifectas and superfectas (in high holes and low) and to Pick 3s, Pick 4s, etc. We will not be making “selections” per se in “On the Contrary.” Rather, we’ll encourage readers to give extra consideration to certain horses who may seem a little overmatched at first glance–but who are in fact the type of horses we often build our bets around. >>See related interview on betting longshots.

 This card starts awful and then runs more or less evenly. We’ll try to get to four horses below, but it will require some labor:

Race 5:

Lirica Heat:

20-1 on ML:

0 for 22 mare is overmatched yet again on the win end, but she’s as good as half of these horses, and she has been training as if she will produce one of her good races. We would not eliminate her from the superfecta if the price is big, which it had better be.

Race 6:

Caradini:

5-1 on ML:

Speed figures have been inching forward. Handles the distance. Training well enough. One of our favorite riders rides right back. We think this filly has a very good chance to crack the exacta.

Race 7:

Baccelo:

5-1 on ML:

The ML favorite looks strong in here, but Baccelo gets an interesting trainer switch to Pete Miller and has back figures that can play with these. Goes second off the long layoff. Can improve and get into exotics.

Race 8:

Stardust Melody:

15-1 on ML:

Much will depend on whether she handles the distance. Has competitive speed figures and has been training well. Talamo sticks. Seems like a fairly dangerous filly at a price.

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