On The Contrary: Santa Anita’s Most Playable Longshots on Friday


>>Friday February 26th | Go To TFUS PPs for today’s races at Santa Anita

Note: The goal of “On The Contrary” is to point out several horses every day who may be overlooked in the wagering and who can possibly add value to trifectas and superfectas (in high holes and low) and to Pick 3s, Pick 4s, etc. We will not be making “selections” per se in “On the Contrary.” Rather, we’ll encourage readers to give extra consideration to certain horses who may seem a little overmatched at first glance–but who are in fact the type of horses we often build our bets around. >>See related interview on betting longshots.

Race 1:

Dr. Sirtori:

10-1 on ML:

Needs big improvement to compete with these, but he just ran his best race since his debut, and he came back with an excellent workout. Draws well for underrated trainer and has a decent shot at getting into the trifecta at a price.

Race 4:

D Day Dude:

8-1 on ML:

Personally, we’ve never loved Fu Pegs on the grass, but the Breeding Ratings show that they’re doing OK. This colt walked out of the gate in his debut, on dirt last spring. Then he hit the sidelines. Returns for an outstanding layoff trainer (100 rating off layoffs comparable to this one). Training extremely well. It seems quite likely that he can run with these if he handles the grass. Trainer does not waste many starts.

Race 5:

Brite Echo:

10-1 on ML:

First-time starter has decent breeding (rating of 81) but goes for a trainer who is not at all strong with firsters. Our calculation here is that this filly will show early speed (as she has reportedly been doing in the mornings), and that at this distance, given that she has trained pretty well overall, she might be able to hang around and hit the trifecta at a big price.

Race 7:

Zuri Chop:

6-1 on ML:

A little light on speed figures but has been training well enough off the layoff. Handles the hill. Looks useful underneath at a decent price.

Race 8:

Jazzy J H:

6-1 on ML:

Both dirt races were awful. Jumped way up on grass—to a number that hits very hard in here. We’re basically taking a shot that the grass move-up was not due to the grass. Need some price given the obvious risk.

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