Literata (#2) is likely to go favored in her first start for 100-rated first-off-the-claim trainer Rudy Rodriguez, who has been having a fantastic meet. It’s not as if he needs to improve this filly that much, since she had previously run a competitive 99 speed figure going a mile two back and last time may have been compromised by the shorter distance at six furlongs. The only knock that we can find is her overall lack of early speed, which may work against her in a race that the Pace Projector is projecting will favor the horses on or near the lead.
There are similar concerns around Daisy Cutter (#1), who is also likely to attract some support. She really woke up when switched back to dirt last time, making a long, sustained run to win a N1X allowance race going away late. The 97 speed figure that she earned puts her in the mix, but race dynamics may work against this deep closer.
Bella Joy (#6) has more speed than the two aforementioned runners and has run plenty of competitive speed figures in recent starts. She may be somewhat ignored on the board and is definitely worth including in exactas and trifectas.
However, our top pick is the runner that is likely to be most helped by the forecasted pace scenario, LADY LUCIANO (#3).
Lady Luciano actually finished ahead of Literata last time at six furlongs. While that one is better at longer distances, we can say the same about this mare, who has registered all three of her career wins in two-turn races over the inner track. The stretch-out in distance should not pose a problem, and she has been steadily rounding back into her best form for John Toscano, who is in the midst of an excellent meet.
EXACTA: 3 with 1,2,6