On The Contrary: Santa Anita’s Most Playable Longshots on Thursday


>>Thursday February 25th | Go To TFUS PPs for today’s races at Santa Anita

Note: The goal of “On The Contrary” is to point out several horses every day who may be overlooked in the wagering and who can possibly add value to trifectas and superfectas (in high holes and low) and to Pick 3s, Pick 4s, etc. We will not be making “selections” per se in “On the Contrary.” Rather, we’ll encourage readers to give extra consideration to certain horses who may seem a little overmatched at first glance–but who are in fact the type of horses we often build our bets around. >>See related interview on betting longshots.

Sleepy Thursday card leaves us reaching for the coffee, but we’ll try to get to five horses:

Race 2:

Carrick Bay:

10-1 on ML:

This is really a reach, since she was kept off the dirt forever, and then her lone dirt try was awful. However, she has competitive grass numbers if you’re willing to go back far enough to find them, and she has trained well enough on dirt on occasion. Need real odds here to take a shot at a decent effort that gets into the trifecta.

Race 3:

Candy Promises:

10-1 on ML:

Don’t love the breeding for the stretch out, but he has competitive dirt figures and a nice pattern and draws well. Chance to hit trifecta at a price if settling down early.

Race 5:

Valdosta Love:

4-1 on ML:

We are cheating here. Firster seems certain to take some money. Poorly bred for this (to say the least), and trainer is nothing special with firsters, but the workouts strongly suggest there is run here. Would definitely cover this number in multi-race exotics and would expect to see at least some talent on display.

Race 8:

Reliable Source:


6-1 on ML:

Speed figures and pattern are promising enough. Grass breeding is adequate. Training very well. Would include him in trifectas for sure.

Dano’s Dream:

15-1 on ML:

Little to like, but grass breeding is interesting enough that we would not toss this colt from exotics if the price is huge.

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