We’re taking a stand against the fragile six-year-old Mean Season (#2), who did not show the same old spark in his return last month, and now tries a significantly tougher spot. Given the amount of speed signed on, including Classic Salsa and Alex the Terror in addition to the favorite, we’re inclined to look at runners coming from just off the pace.
We’ve been fans of Chris Englehart’s Nubin Ridge (#5), who took advantage of a perfect trip and earned a career-best 115 speed figure last time. His closing style figures to suit the dynamics of this race, but he’s stepping up in class, and we wonder if a win may be just out of his reach.
We’re also interested in a few horses exiting the Grade 3 Toboggan. Heaven’s Runway (#3) figures to go off at a fair price in this race after a decent fifth place finish last time out. He was briefly impeded at the top of the stretch that day when Captain Serious took a bad step in front of him, but he still finished up well once clear in the stretch.
However, our top pick is Chris Englehart’s other runner, MEWANNAROSE (#6), who is also coming out of the Toboggan.
Chris Englehart finally got him back on track last time with a fantastic 120 speed figure performance behind the late-running Sassicaia. He had been struggling to refind his form from the winter of 2014-2015 since returning from a layoff in November. He had some excuses in those races, but his last effort suggests that he’s finally back in career form. If Mewannarose repeats his Toboggan effort, we doubt anyone in here can beat him. It’s also worth noting that he’s run respectably over wet tracks in the past, so rain in the forecast is not a concern.
We don’t seriously expect to get his generous morning line price of 6/1, but anything at or above 5/2 would be very fair.
EXACTA Key Box: 6 with 3,5