Note: The goal of “On The Contrary” is to point out several horses every day who may be overlooked in the wagering and who can possibly add value to trifectas and superfectas (in high holes and low) and to Pick 3s, Pick 4s, etc. We will not be making “selections” per se in “On the Contrary.” Rather, we’ll encourage readers to give extra consideration to certain horses who may seem a little overmatched at first glance–but who are in fact the type of horses we often build our bets around. >>See related interview on betting longshots.
8-1 on ML:
Speed figures are way too slow, but he has been training well enough off the gap. Motion is adequate off this sort of layoff. Bejarano takes the mount. Lasix is added. This is more hunch than anything we can articulate minutes before a deadline, but we feel there might be quite a bit more horse here than we have seen to date.
5-1 on ML:
There is not a lot to work with in this short field. The Hollendorfer firster looks promising but will probably take money. The other two firsters supposedly have not been training all that well. Dalmore does not seem terribly talented to us, but he has been training decently off the layoff. He looks like a solid sort who could be useful underneath in trifectas.
One More Round:
6-1 on ML:
Colt looks set to fly out of there and make a run for it. Dangerous if able to flee the rail.
12-1 on ML:
Ran a race last year that can play in here. Highly speculative filly has been training well and should be a fat price. Would not exclude from exotics.
Tough But Nice:
5-1 on ML:
We do not think he is quite a match on talent for the best of these, but we like the way he is developing and we think there is some solidity here. Would certainly use him in the trifecta if the price is there.
15-1 on ML:
Returns from a long layoff at the wrong distance in a race taken off the grass and put on a surface over which he has one 3rd place finish from six tries. But we love the trainer and the way the ridgling has been training. One to watch closely with an eye toward the future, and if the price is very big, we may not be able to resist using a little bit today, too.
50-1 on ML:
Four-hole only, and need to see something like 60-1 up there before doing even that.