Note: The goal of “On The Contrary” is to point out several horses every day who may be overlooked in the wagering and who can possibly add value to trifectas and superfectas (in high holes and low) and to Pick 3s, Pick 4s, etc. We will not be making “selections” per se in “On the Contrary.” Rather, we’ll encourage readers to give extra consideration to certain horses who may seem a little overmatched at first glance–but who are in fact the type of horses we often build our bets around. >>See related interview on betting longshots.
5-1 on ML:
We are going to live with the mediocre turf breeding on this one, since we think his workouts are a tipoff that he is heading back to his strong debut (figure of 94). But we do wish this race were on dirt.
One Bye Two:
8-1 on ML:
Projects to be on the early lead, and a little speed can go a long way at this distance. Has back numbers that can land her in the trifecta. In light from good post, and goes for barn that doesn’t command attention.
Bird E House:
10-1 on ML:
We are really being speculative here. So we will demand every bit of the ML and then some. We think this gelding ran a little better than looked last time. He has run his race at something approaching this distance. Dangerous trainer. Can run with these if everything falls into place and he’s having one of his good days.
12-1 on ML:
Improving filly has interesting breeding for a turf sprint. Training very well for this. We don’t love this post or her lack of speed, but she can possibly make a run for the trifecta at a price.
15-1 on ML:
This is really a reach, but we like this class move a lot and will give him a chance to move up here—but only at a serious price, since his problems are legion.