Note: The goal of “On The Contrary” is to point out several horses every day who may be overlooked in the wagering and who can possibly add value to trifectas and superfectas (in high holes and low) and to Pick 3s, Pick 4s, etc. We will not be making “selections” per se in “On the Contrary.” Rather, we’ll encourage readers to give extra consideration to certain horses who may seem a little overmatched at first glance–but who are in fact the type of horses we often build our bets around. >>See related interview on betting longshots.
8-1 on ML:
Was OK on dirt in his debut. Switched to sharp trainer, switched to grass, and ran a 96. Returned to train very well on dirt. No reason to think this Giant’s Causeway (they are runners, period) cannot handle dirt every bit as well as he handled grass. Kind of an interesting horse in this spot. We expect him to at least run well.
6-1 on ML:
Up against it from a pace standpoint, unfortunately, but we are interested in the fact that she is back on dirt. Has faced tougher up north and has competitive speed figures on synthetic. We would definitely include her in exotics.
12-1 on ML:
A whole bunch of things are lined up to keep this gelding from winning his debut. And we are not sure how well meant he is. But we believe he has some talent. In any event, we plan on watching him very closely for future reference.
20-1 on ML:
We forgive him for his awful effort down the hill because he simply does not like grass. Toss that race and you have a horse at a huge price who has sufficient talent to slip into the superfecta.
Death Valley Girl:
6-1 on ML:
Not as talented as the best of her opponents but might be able to clear off early. Would definitely include in trifectas.