On The Contrary: Santa Anita’s Most Playable Longshots on Thursday


>>Thursday February 11th | Go To TFUS PPs for today’s races at Santa Anita

Note: The goal of “On The Contrary” is to point out several horses every day who may be overlooked in the wagering and who can possibly add value to trifectas and superfectas (in high holes and low) and to Pick 3s, Pick 4s, etc. We will not be making “selections” per se in “On the Contrary.” Rather, we’ll encourage readers to give extra consideration to certain horses who may seem a little overmatched at first glance–but who are in fact the type of horses we often build our bets around. >>See related interview on betting longshots.

Note 2:  With the extra day of racing this week, today’s card, as expected, is awful. What follows, accordingly, lacks enthusiasm:

Race 2:


12-1 on ML:

Has a smidgen of early speed, which can go a long way at this distance, and his speed figures, while very slow, are at least improving. Training well enough. Solid chance to hang around and get into the superfecta.

Race 3:

My Italian Babbo:

8-1 on ML:

First-time starter has a tall task debuting around two turns. However, he has been training quite well, and he has legitimate route breeding and a trainer who, despite no record of success with firsters, at least knows how to train a horse. Rider Brice Blanc is calm and cool and knows how to sit still, which endears him to us.

Race 5:

Tale of Papa Nick:

4-1 on ML:

She will not be a longshot. We just want to mention that she has reportedly been training very well off the layoff. Plus she has a trainer who can crank them up, and she has run well down this hill. Dangerous horse if her fresh speed enables her to clear off early.

Race 7:

Wonderful Lie:

10-1 on ML:

Training very well. Handles grass. Draws the perfect post for this hill. Chance to hit trifecta at a price.

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