On The Contrary: Santa Anita’s Most Playable Longshots on Sunday


>>Sunday February 7th | Go To TFUS PPs for today’s races at Santa Anita

Note: The goal of “On The Contrary” is to point out several horses every day who may be overlooked in the wagering and who can possibly add value to trifectas and superfectas (in high holes and low) and to Pick 3s, Pick 4s, etc. We will not be making “selections” per se in “On the Contrary.” Rather, we’ll encourage readers to give extra consideration to certain horses who may seem a little overmatched at first glance–but who are in fact the type of horses we often build our bets around. >>See related interview on betting longshots.

 Race 1:


6-1 on ML:

Ran a promising race on dirt a month ago. Has some grass breeding, and sharp trainer places her on grass today. Draws well and should get a good trip in race projected to have a fast pace.

Race 2:

Hot Lightning:

12-1 on ML:

Pace Projector shows him on a clear early lead in a race projected to favor speed. Fits at this level and has some speed figures that are not out of place against these. Chance to hold together well enough to get into exotics at a price.

Race 3:


9-2 on ML:

Improved speed figure from first start to second. Has the fastest last-out speed figure in the field. Son of Street Sense should stretch out. Seems unlikely that he has as much upside as Baffert chalk on outside, but seems pretty reliable for a solid effort. Useful trifecta horse.

Race 6:

Rocket Heat:

9-2 on ML:

Seems certain to control the pace in here, in race projected to favor speed. Prefer this one on grass, but he has run his race on dirt several times. Can get brave and be around his more-talented foes at the finish.

Race 7:

Chips All In:

8-1 on ML:

Pace Projector shows him on a clear early lead. Has routed reasonably well in the past. Competitive speed figures. Can stick around for trifecta if able to make the lead easily enough.

Race 8:

Maid Easy:

6-1 on ML:

Training as if she is ready off the layoff. The question here is her ability. But this field seems soft outside the two favorites. So she seems a big threat to be involved in exotics.

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