On The Contrary: Santa Anita’s Most Playable Longshots on Saturday

DontLetTheGamePassYouByfortfus

>>Saturday February 6th | Go To TFUS PPs for today’s races at Santa Anita

Note: The goal of “On The Contrary” is to point out several horses every day who may be overlooked in the wagering and who can possibly add value to trifectas and superfectas (in high holes and low) and to Pick 3s, Pick 4s, etc. We will not be making “selections” per se in “On the Contrary.” Rather, we’ll encourage readers to give extra consideration to certain horses who may seem a little overmatched at first glance–but who are in fact the type of horses we often build our bets around. >>See related interview on betting longshots.

 Race 1:

Courageous Dave:

8-1 on ML:

Not crazy about horses leaving the Baltas barn, but this one ran vastly better than looked last time: Got off to a terrible start. Made up a lot of ground down the backside into a solid pace. Still earned decent figure. Happy to see the blinkers come off. Has a strong back figure of 95 to aim at. Can outrun his odds in this spot.

Race 2:

Thorn Legacy:

6-1 on ML:

This trainer change we do like, and this gelding followed up on a decent debut with an improved workout. Threat for it all if going forward second out.

Race 3:

Albeit:

8-1 on ML:

Draws well. In light. Has run decently down this hill. Has strong back number on grass. Exotic threat at hint of price.

Race 4:

Dressed in Hermes:

6-1 on ML:

See full-length write up elsewhere on website. Big threat if handling surface.

Race 5:

She’s a Warrior:

20-1 on ML:

See full-length write up elsewhere on website. Can add that she has been training superbly. Threat to get into lower trifecta hole at big price.

Race 6:

Press Baron:

20-1 on ML:

Pace Projector is projecting a fast pace. This old gelding is in over his head and training poorly but will be far off the pace and is not out of the question for the superfecta. Price needs to be massive.

Race 7:

Donworth:

6-1 on ML:

Overmatched on speed figures but is training as if a new top could be coming off the layoff. That could get him into the trifecta.

Race 9:

Giant Expectations:

12-1 on ML:

Firster has been acting like a proficient closer in the mornings. There are negatives here, including lack of win-early breeding and trainer who is not great with firsters. But would give this one a chance to run into trifecta if ML comes close to holding.

Mucho Chrome:

6-1 on ML:

Ran half a dozen lengths better than one would think after a mere glance.

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