On The Contrary: Santa Anita’s Most Playable Longshots on Friday


>>Friday February 5th | Go To TFUS PPs for today’s races at Santa Anita

Note: The goal of “On The Contrary” is to point out several horses every day who may be overlooked in the wagering and who can possibly add value to trifectas and superfectas (in high holes and low) and to Pick 3s, Pick 4s, etc. We will not be making “selections” per se in “On the Contrary.” Rather, we’ll encourage readers to give extra consideration to certain horses who may seem a little overmatched at first glance–but who are in fact the type of horses we often build our bets around. >>See related interview on betting longshots.

 Race 3:

Mysterious Miracle:

5-1 on ML:

In the mornings, this filly has been acting as if she will not be a maiden for long. Decent dirt-sprint breeding for the long haul (93 rating), though not really win-early breeding, but her trainer can get a firster ready and her rider (in light) can ride.

Race 4:


20-1 on ML:

Overmatched mare interests us strictly in terms of the outside chance that she can hug the rail around both turns, then ease out and get up for 4th at a massive price. She is too slow to hope for much more than that.

Race 5:

Avanti Bello:

5-1 on ML:

Pace Projector shows him with a clear early lead in a race favoring speed. This jump in class is a significant one, but he has never been sharper. Need all of ML for what is a tough assignment.

Race 6:

Mr. Cartagena:

5-1 on ML:

Looks well placed to suck along in second place early and hang around for the trifecta. Would not get much more ambitious than that. He got back in form last time and has previously shown that he can put decent efforts together.

Race 8:

Fort Cady:

20-1 on ML:

Continuing the pattern on a day when we’re liking mostly untalented horses and, accordingly, are looking more underneath than on top, we will give this gelding a chance to capitalize on the projected fast pace and make a late, unambitious run into the super at a gigantic price. Rider rides mainly longshots but is extremely strong and has managed to stay in our good graces (no small feat).

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