The 43rd running of the Busanda drew an intriguing mix of fillies that have been knocking at the door against stakes company and runners that are stepping up in class out of impressive maiden wins.
Of the horses coming out of the Demoiselle, the one we want most is Flora Dora (#1), who may have been hindered by a moderate pace that day. She shouldn’t have any problem with the distance, and she drew well down towards the inside. The only knock against her is that there are some recent maiden winners in this field who have run just as fast as she and are likely to go off at better prices.
Alto Belle (#5) may be the fastest of them all, but we doubt you’ll get much of a price. She figures to go favored off the strength of her 18-length maiden victory in the mud last time out, for which she earned a huge 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That’s easily the highest number in the race, but she does have to face some hurdles today. She has never started over a fast track, and must deal with early pressure from stretch-out sprinter Kentucky Road, as well as her speedy stablemate, Lost Raven. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which could work against her.
Scatoosh (#8) is worth considering as she, too, steps up in class off a recent maiden win. The 90 speed figure she earned doesn’t match the numbers that Alto Belle has posted but is right in line with what the others have been running. She did have to race wide around the turns last time and didn’t appear to have any trouble handling the distance.
While we respect all of the aforementioned fillies, our top selection is DREAMS TO REALITY (#6).
We realize that Dreams to Reality has faced lesser foes while racing against maiden claiming company, but her maiden win was visually impressive and earned a decent speed figure. She won with the utmost ease that day, and the margin seemingly could have been greater had Manny Franco swung her out into the clear sooner. She runs like a filly that should have no problem stretching out to two turns, and her running style suits the projected race shape. Furthermore, Michael Dilger has absolutely outstanding numbers with horses coming off maiden wins (we give him a 100 trainer rating in that category). We think this filly will be ready to take another step forward here.
EXACTA Key Box: #6 with 1,5,8