Note: The goal of “On The Contrary” is to point out several horses every day who may be overlooked in the wagering and who can possibly add value to trifectas and superfectas (in high holes and low) and to Pick 3s, Pick 4s, etc. We will not be making “selections” per se in “On the Contrary.” Rather, we’ll encourage readers to give extra consideration to certain horses who may seem a little overmatched at first glance–but who are in fact the type of horses we often build our bets around.
5-1 on ML:
The favorite should win if he fires on the drop in what is a pretty awful opener. Redneck Crazy can run with any of the others if you look past his awful effort two weeks ago. Has competitive figures and a pleasing style, and no-name rider knows him well. He’s surprisingly high on the ML.
10-1 on ML:
This race manages the considerable feat of being just as bad as the opener. The favorite will be a tiny price and figures tough. Silver Chrome has shown next to nothing in three starts, but his most recent start was the least awful of the three, and his recent workout does not qualify as awful. That makes him a solid contender to get into the trifecta at a price.
You Know I Know:
6-1 on ML:
Has not won on dirt but he handles it just fine. His race down the hill was much better than it looks. He did very well to get 3rd from that awful spot he was in earlier. Lacks speed but has legitimate chance to make late run into lower exotics.
Sea Side Story:
20-1 on ML:
Badly overmatched on paper and training poorly for trainer whose four starters at the meet have done nothing. However, we believe that her Jan. 7 race was not as terrible as it looks on paper. She got into a bad spot, backed out, and then showed surprising grit while soundly beaten. Has good rider, is in light, and handles two turns. If everything falls into place, she may be able to sneak into the superfecta at a massive price.
15-1 on ML:
Was not abused by Tyler Baze in US debut. Returned to train well for trainer whose horses have been firing. Baze sticks.
6-1 on ML:
Showed talent before the layoff and has trained well for her return. Draws good post for outside stalking trip.
30-1 on ML:
0 for 19 lifetime, but it could be worse. In fact, it almost certainly will be worse when this race (which is against the boys) is over. With that out of the way, we’ve always liked this mare. She is not all that far off these on her best. She handles the hill just fine. She has run her race off layoffs. Chance to get into exotics at huge price.
Lord of Chaos:
12-1 on ML:
Trainer doesn’t win much with firsters, but this gelding has some grass breeding and has shown some run in the morning.