Note: The goal of “On The Contrary” is to point out several horses every day who may be overlooked in the wagering and who can possibly add value to trifectas and superfectas (in high holes and low) and to Pick 3s, Pick 4s, etc. We will not be making “selections” per se in “On the Contrary.” Rather, we’ll encourage readers to give extra consideration to certain horses who may seem a little overmatched at first glance–but who are in fact the type of horses we often build our bets around. >>See related interview on betting longshots.
5-1 on ML:
Did not get a clean run down the hill last time. Seemed to finish with gas in the tank. Two back he had a rough trip. Three back he was fried on the pace. Today he draws a lousy post. We would demand more than ML odds here because another bad trip is likely, but this gelding has a little bit of talent.
9-2 on ML:
Ran much better than it looks on paper. Won a hot speed duel before hitting wall. Strong speed figure. Projects to have clear lead in race favoring speed.
8-1 on ML:
Looked like a professional racehorse in his debut. Engaged for the lead. Saw a different frontrunner cross over on him. Settled in the pocket. Split horses in tight. It was a good show for an inexperienced horse. Second-out improvement, should it come, would make him a threat at a price.
12-1 on ML:
Lacks talent, but is not quite as untalented as he looks on paper. Pinballed at break last time. Off slowly two back. Sharp short drill last week. Chance to make late run and get into exotics. That seems to be his ceiling in a race that is shorter than we’d like.
Dreaming of Gold:
9-2 on ML:
Strong speed figure in last start. Followed up with outstanding workout. Has interesting breeding for 10F and good connections.
Horse Greedy (12-1) and Watch My Dust (20-1):
The favorite looks very strong in here, and Baffert has a firster who is training well. The two horses listed above should be giant prices, and we think they have a shot to get into the bottom of exotics. Horse Greedy has trained very well since his dull debut. Watch My Dust is slightly better, we think, than he looks on paper, and he gets back on dirt.
10-1 on ML:
Need only pair his last race (96) to get into trifecta here for an underrated trainer.
Beat of the Drum:
20-1 on ML:
Overmatched in here, but draws good post, has trained well, and has sufficient ability at her best to flirt with the lower positions in exotics at a massive price.
15-1 on ML:
Fried on fractions, nice speed figure, training well, and shorter distance cannot hurt.