Note: The goal of “On The Contrary” is to point out several horses every day who may be overlooked in the wagering and who can possibly add value to trifectas and superfectas (in high holes and low) and to Pick 3s, Pick 4s, etc. We will not be making “selections” per se in “On the Contrary.” Rather, we’ll encourage readers to give extra consideration to certain horses who may seem a little overmatched at first glance–but who are in fact the type of horses we often build our bets around. >>See related interview on betting longshots.
Pete’s Play Call:
15-1 on ML:
Has shown nothing in two starts and is no match for the favorites, but we do not believe that this colt is quite as awful as he looks on paper. He has decent grass-sprint breeding and has trained pretty well since his last no-show. Chance to hit exotics at a big price.
12-1 on ML:
Ran better than looked last time. Returned to train well enough. Has back numbers that fit with these and projects to be just off the early lead. Has chance to hang around well enough to get into the trifecta at a big price.
15-1 on ML:
Well bred firster will probably get lost in the wagering, what with two Hollendorfer firsters and a Baffert firster in here, plus several lightly raced horses who have run decently. Has trained well for a trainer who does not do well with first-time starters. Chance to crash super at huge price.
6-1 on ML:
Has strong speed figures and handles this hill quite well. Facing softer today and should be able to establish good stalking position.
8-1 on ML:
Can run with these if capable of transferring best grass form to dirt. Would benefit if the two favorites hook up early.
6-1 on ML:
Has the best speed figures in the field, and has been training well for a trainer who has been going well. This is Perdona’s first try down the hill, but she has shown sufficient speed and stamina to suggest she could take to this demanding trip.
Black Clover (20-1) and B K Miss (30-1) are both more than capable of running awful races, but Black Clover has the look of a filly who has not shown her ability yet, and B K Miss can get involved if getting back to her debut. We would not eliminate either of these fillies entirely, given what figure to be massive odds.