On The Contrary: Santa Anita’s Most Playable Longshots on Thursday


>>Thursday January 14th | Go To TFUS PPs for today’s races at Santa Anita

Note: The goal of “On The Contrary” is to point out several horses every day who may be overlooked in the wagering and who can possibly add value to trifectas and superfectas (in high holes and low) and to Pick 3s, Pick 4s, etc. We will not be making “selections” per se in “On the Contrary.” Rather, we’ll encourage readers to give extra consideration to certain horses who may seem a little overmatched at first glance–but who are in fact the type of horses we often build our bets around. >>See related interview on betting longshots.

Race 2:

I Buy Gold:

6-1 on ML:

The favorite (Carlot Cowboy) is strong in here, but I Buy Gold, though relatively untalented, has long been one of our favorite underneath horses because he fights to the line even when outrun, likes to run inside horses, and doesn’t get bet. He’s in light today with his regular rider, and we’ll give him a chance to grind into the trifecta at a price.

Race 3:


6-1 on ML:

Up in class, but Pace Projector has her on the early lead, and her speed figures are headed in the right direction for a trainer whose horses have been running extremely well. Can hang around and hit the board.

Race 4:


6-1 on ML:

Ran an interesting race in October. He popped the gate, engaged for the lead, backed out of there, looked to be going nowhere, and then swung wide and made a decent run. Stretches out today, with competitive speed figures, and Pace Projector shows him on a clear early lead.

Race 5:

Stormy Liberal:

10-1 on ML:

Rough trip on hot pace in a route last time. Cuts back to the hill, which he enjoys. Has the fastest last-out speed figure in the field and has trained very well for what will be his third start off the layoff.

Race 6:

Turn Your Eyes:

10-1 on ML:

Needs to turn it around today or turning one’s eyes will be in order, but Miyadi has been sending out live horses, and this colt has a competitive race to get back to and should be the longest shot on the board.

Race 7:


12-1 on ML:

Gelding has been training very well off the layoff for Motion. Has been ambitiously placed in his last three starts. Draws a good post and may well be up to running with these at a price.

Race 8:

Italian Jumper:


Overmatched off recent and has done little to date. However, while expecting a win here would be fanciful, we see a slight possibility that he can get back near his best as he goes second off the layoff, off a strong workout for a no-name trainer who has been firing shots lately without winning. Something near his best makes him  a threat to get into exotics at a big price.


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