Unrepented (#1) returns to the NYRA circuit after putting together a string of strong efforts up at Finger Lakes. The only knock against her is that the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace and she’ll likely have to withstand pressure from Barrel of Dreams (#2), First Charmer (#3), and perhaps even Stoneheartedlover (#5). Normally the rail post position is advantageous on the inner track, but this Chris Englehart trainee could be under the gun from the start.
Prize Taker (#12) has run plenty of races this year that should make her a win candidate in a spot like this. The only problem is that she just doesn’t win, at 1-for-28 lifetime. It is of slight concern that her last race was so poor, but it’s encouraging that she doesn’t return for a tag and Charlton Baker gets an excellent 100 trainer rating off short layoffs like this. This projected race shape should benefit her.
The same goes for Saratiago (#9), who may find a win just out of reach, but should appreciate stretching back out to two turns.
Irish Laughter (#7) blew the doors off a weaker maiden claiming field last time. While she did earn a competitive speed figure, we need to see her duplicate that performance on a dry track while coming from off the pace.
We actually prefer a differently lightly raced filly and that’s BEATING HEART BABY (#6).
This daughter of Eskendereya finally gets a chance to stretch out for Michelle Nevin. Ever since her debut, we felt that she would relish two turns, and Michelle Nevin’s numbers with horses trying a route for the first time are very strong (94 rating). Beating Heart Baby earned a 95 speed figure in her maiden-breaking score and a similar type of effort should stack up well against this field. Her last race looks a little disappointing, but she was always playing catch up at a distance that is too short for her. She should be more forwardly placed today and we feel she’s sitting on a breakout performance.
Win bet on BEATING HEART BABY (#6).
Exacta key box using BEATING HEART BABY (#6) with Unrepented (#1), Saratiago (#9), and Prize Taker (#12).