Note: The goal of “On The Contrary” is to point out several horses every day who may be overlooked in the wagering and who can possibly add value to trifectas and superfectas (in high holes and low) and to Pick 3s, Pick 4s, etc. We will not be making “selections” per se in “On the Contrary.” Rather, we’ll encourage readers to give extra consideration to certain horses who may seem a little overmatched at first glance–but who are in fact the type of horses we often build our bets around. >>See related interview on betting longshots.
20-1 on ML:
Filly is overmatched in here, but not by all that much, and given huge odds, we’ll give her a chance to revert to a stalking style, fold over to the rail, do nothing for 3/4 of a mile, and then do enough to get into the super.
6-1 on ML:
Pace Projector shows him stalking in second place early. Exits strong maiden race at Los Al. Has the fastest last-out dirt speed figure in the field and has trained well enough since his last start.
9-2 on ML:
Pace Projector shows him engaged for the early lead. Lightly raced and ran a fairly strong number (89) in his first start for the Denise Breuer barn. Training well enough and is versatile enough to rate if this proves necessary.
8-1 on ML:
Veteran has back class and ran better at Keeneland than finish position suggests. Her old grass speed figures look just fine in context. She finds herself in a race projected to have a fast pace, which should flatter her style. She has looked fine in the morning. We’ll give her a chance to come running in here at nice odds.