The scratch of favored Sudden Surprise (#6) changes the race only in the sense that it ensures that his stablemate, Spooked Out (#3), will run. Spooked Out is now projected to be the controlling speed, chased by fellow stretch-out sprinter Gehrig (#2). Both of these horses have run competitive speed figures but are out of dams that found most of their success sprinting. They may be the two most talented runners in the race, but we don’t want either one at a relatively short price.
Taoiseach (#4) successfully stretched out last time despite having to sharply change course in upper stretch. While he did overcome that trouble, the race came back slower than anticipated, and it felt as if his main competition either underperformed or was undone by wide trips.
Our top pick is EXTINCT CHARM (#1).
This son of American Lion ran faster than Taoiseach last time (94 speed figure) and figures to go off at a higher price. While it briefly looked as if he might be turning into a turf horse, his last race suggests that he simply stepped forward because of the stretch-out in distance. His pedigree indicates that dirt should be his preferred surface, and we liked the way he finished up last time, indicating that two turns should be no problem.
Win bet on EXTINCT CHARM (#1)