Friday Aqueduct Highlight Horse: Is going long on the dirt Queens Tiara’s true calling?

DontLetTheGamePassYouByfortfus

>>Aqueduct | Race 3 | Friday December 18th | 1:20 PM EST | Go To The TimeformUS PPs 

The morning line favorite is Surprise Cameo (#1), who is undoubtedly a contender but not a very appealing wagering proposition. She has twice failed against stakes company, and there is no guarantee that she is going to appreciate this stretch-out around two turns. Furthermore, the Pace Projector is predicting that she will have to tangle early with two speedy long shots drawn to her outside.

One of the logical alternatives is Here Comes Rosie (#4), but we didn’t like the way she finished up last time, and we wonder if she’s going to continue to get better with added distance.

Singsong (#2) is an interesting player. We can forgive her dirt debut, and she’s raced exclusively on turf since then. She does have some dirt pedigree, and her first start against winners was not as bad as it looks, considering her wide trip.

However, if we’re going to take a horse coming out of a turf race, the one we want is QUEENS TIARA (#5).

Screen Shot 2015-12-18 at 11.30.20 AM

Unlike Singsong, Queens Tiara actually has valuable dirt experience. While we acknowledge that her maiden win came against a softer maiden claiming field, she did run a somewhat competitive speed figure of 74. She also ran very well within the context of the race, chasing a fast pace while racing wide before gamely pulling away through the stretch. We get the feeling that this filly is the one that is going to appreciate the extra distance most of all, so she’s our top pick. A price around her morning line of 6/1 would be more than fair.

THE PLAY

Win bet on QUEENS TIARA (#5)

Exacta box keying QUEENS TIARA (#5) with Surprise Cameo (#1) and Singsong (#2)

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