Four of the top six finishers in the maiden race on October 24 are running back here. That race came up fast on the speed figure scale, but it was contested over six furlongs, and they all must stretch out to the two-turn mile today.
A horse like Tiz a Chance (#6) figures to attract plenty of support despite the fact that all of his success has come sprinting. His trainer, Graham Motion, does not have great numbers with horses stretching out in distance. Dream Doctor (#7) is the one we prefer out of that race, but he was one of many running on late in a race that came together at the end.
We prefer a couple of horses with route experience. Thirst for Glory (#4) ran very well in his last turf start, which came all the way back in March at Gulfstream. He was off for a long time after that, but should have gotten some needed conditioning out of his dirt prep for this.
Our top pick is CLIFFS OF DOVER (#10), who has a similar profile to Thirst for Glory but should go off at a bigger price.
He ran better than it appears in his Florida turf start, in which he was steadied early and again at a critical point at the top of the stretch. Despite an uncomfortable trip, he really got rolling through the lane. That day he finished just ahead of subsequent Queen’s Plate winner Shaman Ghost, so there may have been some quality in that field. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace set by long shots Junger and The Crocheron Kid, so Cliffs of Dover’s closing style may suit the expected race shape. His last race was obviously just a prep, and we expect a vastly improved performance as he switches back to turf.
WIN: CLIFFS OF COVER (#10)
EXACTA BOX: Key CLIFFS OF DOVER (#10) with Thirst for Glory (#4), Tiz a Chance (#6), and Dream Doctor (#7)