The Grade 1 Frizette, for 2yo fillies over a one-turn mile on Belmont’s main track, has pulled a field of seven. As usual for the juvenile graded stakes program in this country, they are light on experience, with five of the seven entering with nothing more than a maiden win to their credit.
The ML favorite is #2 Width. She is one for one so far, having defeated maidens impressively on debut at Saratoga with a TFUS Speed Figure of 90 while with a closer-friendly track (note Race Rating box shaded blue). We can give her some extra credit for defeating Libreta, who came right back with an impressive win of her own last weekend with a figure of 92, but stretching out from 5.5 furlongs is a tall order and makes her a rather unappealing favorite.
Alternatives to Width are not easy to come by, though we have found one in #3 Nemoralia.
She arrives from Europe with questions of her own to answer, having never run on dirt, but her talent is difficult to deny, and we like the fact that she has four races of experience behind her. She has been impressive in winning her last two starts while never having to get down to serious business, and her Breeding Rating of 88 for dirt routes suggests that she can handle the surface switch. Trainer Jeremy Noseda has had success shipping to the states in the past, winning a Grade 1 here a few years ago with Western Aristocrat and sending Grandeur over to land a trio of Grade 1 placings.
The second-choice on the ML is the NY-bred #1 She’s All Ready. Another one who has to stretch out (only #6 Desert Tune has been the mile, so far), She’s All Ready has won both of her starts impressively with figures of 88 and 89. Those figures put her in play in this race, and we can see no reason that her being a NY-bred works against her here, considering what she is running up against.
The Play: Nemoralia to win and key her in multi-race wagers. Exactas using her with She’s All Ready and Width.