>>Saturday September 26th | Go To TimeformUS PPs for the racecard
Note: The goal of “On The Contrary” is to point out several horses every day who may be overlooked in the wagering and who can possibly add value to trifectas and superfectas (in high holes and low) and to Pick 3s, Pick 4s, etc, though the On The Contrary selections also have a longterm positive ROI in the win pool. We will not be making “selections” per se in “On the Contrary.” Rather, we’ll encourage readers to give extra consideration to certain horses who may seem a little overmatched at first glance–but who are in fact the type of horses we often build our bets around. >>See related interview on betting longshots.
Moons Over Me:
15-1 on ML.
Badly overmatched and exceedingly unlikely to win this race, but she ran better than looked going 5F on grass at Del Mar, a race that tends to be unfriendly to deep closers. Now she gets her second shot down the hill. Her first attempt down the hill saw her nearly spring an upset at 36-1. Trained well enough since her last race. We’ll give her a chance to get into exotics at a big number.
6-1 on ML. Pace Projector puts him on a clear early lead in a race projected to favor speed. Facing vastly easier today in this starter allowance, which is written to attract recent maiden claiming graduates. Strong on our speed figures. Will need to break alertly from lousy post.
6-1 on ML. Big improvement second time out. We’ll give him the best chance to upset Nyquist, who is the deserving favorite.
8-1 on ML. Ran just fine a couple years ago in his only try down this hill. Recent speed figures are competitive and he has been training superbly. His rider knows how to ride this tricky course.
9-2 on ML. Wide around both turns and choked by slow pace, then scuttled maidens with ease. We’ll give her the best chance to pull an upset in a race in which Songbird is the deserving favorite.
15-1 on ML. Ran better than looked in minor stake, handles distance, has been training well, and can save a lot of ground and get involved late at a price.
6-1 on ML. Received big barn switch before the Pacific Classic and then ran into Beholder. Came back to train superbly. Will need fractions to close into and a racetrack that does not thwart closers.