Let’s see if we can give you clarity about all of the cool features that make TFUS PPs (TimeformUS Past Performances) the best available for North American horse racing. This is a cheat sheet–click on the hot links for much deeper detail on any feature.
Speed Figures, the TFUS Way
- How fast is fast? The Kentucky Derby is typically won with a TFUS Speed Figure in the mid-120s.
- TFUS Speed Figures are on the Timeform Global Scale–our scale is harmonized to align with the figures Timeform assigns for racing around the world.
- Note: There is nothing magical about a TFUS Figure of 100. It’s not that fast!
- Unlike other North American speed figures, TFUS Speed Figures are adjusted for the pace of each race. Example: If a frontrunner gets away with a slow early pace, we will use our algorithms to downgrade its TFUS Speed Figure.
- Note: Our figures are not adjusted for ground loss.
Our Pace Figures:
- If there’s a speed figure for an entire race, shouldn’t there be a speed figure for every fraction in a race? Yes.
- These are TFUS Pace Figures, they’re right in TFUS running lines, and they’ll help you understand a race much better than raw fractional times will.
- Note: Here in North America, we like to go way too fast early in dirt races–typically on dirt, the Pace Figures for the early part of a race will be faster than the TFUS Speed Figure for the winner.
- Note: You have multiple ways to display fractions in our PPs–Pace Figures, or raw times, or adjusted times. Just tap on any running line to easily customize your fractions.
- We do the preliminary work for you–our algorithms look at today’s race conditions, then sort through each horse’s previous races to find the most relevant race from which to start evaluating its chances against the others he is facing today.
- Note: What happens when the horse has no relevant recent races? The algorithms kick into overdrive and do the best they can, but in any scenario, a real horseplayer will look through the PPs to get a deeper understanding of all contenders.
TimeformUS Ratings: Why look at raw stats when we can do the work for you?
- Our algorithms look back at every trainer’s last 5 years of results, then distill results into a simple 100-point scale.
- For this rating, we consider win %, in the money results, return on investment, recency, and more.
- Once we’ve got the overall rating for a trainer, we slice and dice it in every way pertinent to today’s race, so you can compare a trainer’s overall rating to his results in today’s scenario.
- Note: Beware of small sample sizes! If a sample size is small, we’ll put it in a white box, and if it’s too small to even matter, we simply won’t display it.
- Surface and distance specific, our Breeding Ratings answer the question: What is this horse best-bred to do?
- Note: These are based on a horse’s family history of TimeformUS Speed Figures on the racetrack, rather than won/loss record.
- Note: Sometimes horses are poorly bred to do things they end up doing well, and brilliantly bred to do things they end up having no talent for. Consequently, while highly useful, Breeding Ratings are necessarily speculative—they are no substitute for evidence provided on the racetrack.
TimeformUS Tools: Our Little Toys
- We use our algorithms to evaluate each horse’s TimeformUS Pace Figures and habitual running styles and turn them into a glorious and timesaving data visualization to understand how a race will take shape.
- Note: Pace Projectors visualize a race 1/4-mile into sprints, and 1/2-mile into routes.
- Note: Of course, Pace Projector has been honed over time. It now adjusts for factors like blinkers, maturity, and more.
- Sometimes you’ll see Pace Figures in PPs that are bright red or bright blue. These color codes let you know that the pace of the race was unusual—red figures mean a race was exceptionally fast early, blue fractions mean the race was run at a slow early pace.
- Sometimes the Race Rating box will be a shade of red or blue. This is a comment on how the track was playing that day. Red means speed ruled, blue means closers did exceptionally well.
TimeformUS Selections: Good, Way Better, Best
- Good–Our algorithms look at Spotlight Speed figures, Trainer Ratings, Pedigree Ratings, etc., and rank the top 3 most likely winners for each race. A helpful starting point.
- Way Better–Our experts weigh in on the biggest races and circuits in the country. The same sort of thinking that goes into our algorithms and speed figures, but with a layer of expertise and vigor that you will not find elsewhere.
- Best—it’s the same thing as our Expert Analysis, but more in-depth, and typically will include betting strategies.
- Note: Betting Strategies are sold around racing’s biggest days (such as Kentucky Derby Day) or meets (such as Saratoga), in response to the remarkable customer demand around these peak days.