On The Contrary: Del Mar’s Most Playable Longshots on Wednesday July 22nd

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>>Del Mar | July 22nd | Go to Racecard

>>Read Justin Finch’s Full Card Analysis For Today’s Card at Del Mar here.

Note: The goal of “On The Contrary” is to point out several horses every day who may be overlooked in the wagering and who can possibly add value to trifectas and superfectas (in high holes and low) and to Pick 3s, Pick 4s, etc. We will not be making “selections” per se in “On the Contrary.” Rather, we’ll encourage readers to give extra consideration to certain horses who may seem a little overmatched at first glance–but who are in fact the type of horses we often build our bets around. >>See related interview on betting longshots.


Race 1:

One More Roll:

8-1 on ML. He had a difficult time of it in an 870-yard race at Los Alamitos. Roughed up a bit at the start, he then had a hard time cornering, which we will forgive because that can be a nasty turn. Still, he got it together on the straight and made a decent run. He has run his race at regular-sized racetracks (including on Poly at Del Mar). The 870-yard experience may have sharpened his speed. He can handle 6F. Chance to get into exotics at a price.

Race 3:

Heir of Storm:

6-1 on ML.

Pace Projector shows him on a clear early lead. His old turf races fit fairly well with the surrounding races. Big workout on this turf course a week ago. Trainer Pete Miller can usually be counted on to send horses who need to be sent.

Race 4:

Briana Jean:

5-1 on ML. Was bothered at the start at Los Alamitos. Recovered to run reasonably well. Came back to look good in an unambitious Miyadi work over this surface. Maybe not the most talented sort but can grind into trifecta.

Race 5:

Unusually:

15-1 on ML. We could not stand his last race. Came up painfully empty in the lane. But returned to train as if all is well. Draws inside and can possibly get Tyler Baze’s patented suck-along turf trip, a trip that occasionally allows horses to outrun their talent at a price.

Race 7:

Pure Tactics:

12-1 on ML. Strong speed figures. Handles two turns. Good rider projects for good trip here. Chance to be in thick of things late.

Race 8:

What a Rainbow:

30-1 on ML. She has shown precisely nothing in two starts. Hard to stomach on paper. But this field is soft and she returned to train as if there is more horse here than we have seen. Need huge price to include her in super.

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