On The Contrary: Santa Anita’s Most Playable Longshots on Saturday February 28th


>Santa Anita / February 28th / Go to Racecard

>See related interview on betting longshots. 

Note: The goal of “On The Contrary” is to point out several horses every day who may be overlooked in the wagering and who can possibly add value to trifectas and superfectas (in high holes and low) and to Pick 3s, Pick 4s, etc. We will not be making “selections” per se in “On the Contrary.” Rather, we’ll encourage readers to give extra consideration to certain horses who may seem a little overmatched at first glance–but who are in fact the type of horses we often build our bets around.

The weather is OK at time of writing but some dark clouds are closing in.

Race 1: Pass. (Commander King is worth watching for future reference. John Sadler is super-dangerous when he claims, and even more interesting when he claims maidens. This one is spotted ambitiously and put in a grass route. Will be interesting.)

Race 2: Pass.

Race 3: #3 Trelawny.

This is highly speculative. Gelding seems off form and, for good measure, has trained poorly. Longest shot in the field on the ML (8-1). However, only three of his 43 starts have been on dirt, and we find those three races kind of interesting. In addition, our speed figures have his last race quite a bit faster than one might expect. So we’ll give him a chance to slip into the trifecta at a nice price.

Race 4: #6 Margie’s Minute. (This is grass only.)

TimeformUS Pace Projector has her on a clear early lead today. Faced a tough pace situation last time and fought back gallantly in the lane. Earned competitive speed figure of 98. Also ran well in previous start down the hill. 12-1 on ML. The crowd generally shuns this trainer’s horses. Chance to get involved in exotics at a big price. Let’s just hope Humoristica lets her float around out there until at least the 1/4 pole.

Race 5: Pass.

Race 6: Pass.

Race 7: #3 Midnight Miley.

Screen Shot 2015-02-28 at 3.08.57 PM
20-1 on ML today. Was acting up in the gate before her turf debut. Then went very wide into tough fractions. Exited that race to train extremely well for this. Is nowhere near as talented as the favorites but can get involved in the bottom of exotics.

Race 8: #4 Achiever’s Legacy.

She is 8-1 on the revised ML. We discussed this filly in a full-length write up elsewhere on the website. If anything, we like her a little bit more now than we did when we wrote that piece. Has been training in superb fashion for this. We will play her to win and protect in the exacta.

Race 9: #8 Frannie’sspirittoo.

She is 12-1 on the ML. Dull effort off the long layoff last time. Broke well, engaged briefly, then dropped way back and was taken to the inside, where she spent some time taking dirt. Finished up reasonably well. Simple calculation here: She is a price, and if she gets back to something resembling her prior form, she can get into the trifecta here.

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