Note: The goal of “On The Contrary” is to point out several horses every day who may be overlooked in the wagering and who can possibly add value to trifectas and superfectas (in high holes and low) and to Pick 3s, Pick 4s, etc. We will not be making “selections” per se in “On the Contrary.” Rather, we’ll encourage readers to give extra consideration to certain horses who may seem a little overmatched at first glance–but who are in fact the type of horses we often build our bets around.
Race 1: Pass. (Like Lolo El Canonero to hit trifecta but doubt there will be sufficient price.)
Race 2: #6 Toomanytomatoes.
Like this mare to get involved in this thing on the triple-jump in class off of what was a visually impressive effort in last start. 6-1 on ML. Handles distance. Fits on our speed figures.
Race 3: Pass.
Race 4: #10 Coded Message.
Made her debut five weeks ago and ran an interesting race. Broke poorly. Made up some ground. Then seemed to decide she didn’t like it inside. Then ran impressively in spots. It was the kind of performance that leaves us thinking there was quite a bit more there. Came back to be a vet scratch in a 7F race. Vet scratches in SoCal can be meaningful or absolutely meaningless, depending on the circumstances. Vet scratch need not mean “vet scratch.” Filly came back to train decently. 7-2 on ML. Prefer her with this outside draw. Expecting her to improve her speed figure by a good margin today. If this happens, she can be right there at the wire. The likely favorite, Dixie Dame, is best on her best and gets a tremendously positive trainer change to an ace trainer, but she telegraphed her poor performance in her last start by lugging out badly (some of it into the whip) in her previous start. We will use her on top defensively.
Race 5: # 4 Heaveneleven.
0 for 17 gelding made turf debut in last start and did too much early work while wide on a strong pace. Held together reasonably well given the circumstances. 20-1 on ML. Crowd hates playing this type of horse. Chance to slip into super at huge price.
Race 6: Pass.
Race 7: Pass.
Race 8: #9 Rare Punch.
Pinballed shortly after start of last one. Overmatched, to boot. Still ran OK. Race two back was better. Training decently for trainer the crowd will not want to play. 10-1 on morning line. Can get involved on bottom of exotics.