#11 Justonemorething will be on a clear early lead, according to Pace Projector. Has the best last-out speed figure in the field and switches to a rider with whom Kruljac gets a rating of 98. #7 Hot Lightning is a big threat from just off the pace if Marquez can keep this colt in the form Simon Callaghan had him in.
#7 May B will also be on a clear early lead, according to Pace Projector, and he, too, has the best last-out speed figure in the field. Has been training beautifully over this surface. #4 Surfing Angel keeps outrunning his odds and projects for an inside stalking trip. Headley gets 89 rating off comparable spacing.
#8 Jet Trick was exceedingly game in defeat: hard-used early and yet battling on late. His best speed figure, a 59, came over this surface. #3 Hurry Up Henry takes class plunge and has been training well on real dirt. Big threat in here if he breaks.
#11 Ideal should appreciate the switch to dirt, according to our Breeding Ratings. Ran competitive speed figure of 89 in debut and came back to train in improved fashion on dirt for Hollendorfer, who gets a rating of 93 going synthetic to dirt. #1 Wabel projects to be on the early lead and ran a promising speed figure of 89 in his debut.
#1 Son of War figures to be a price in here and was visually impressive as he laid waste to a field of MSWs. Pace Projector shows him sitting a nice trip in here. #3 Mal Verde has speed to make a trip from this post and enters off a competitive speed figure of 97. This will be his second try around two turns.
#10 Jojo Warrior has been training up a storm off the short break. Has been running improving speed figures and should receive an outside stalking trip in a race that the Pace Projector sees as having a fast pace. #7 Stonetastic could prove an elusive target if she gets the jump on the rail filly. #1 Taris is hooking a lot of speed in here but will be very difficult to deny if she repeats either of her last two efforts.
#1 Patriots Rule showed more early interest when running a speed figure of 110 in a synthetic sprint. In his most recent turf effort, he showed a powerful late kick after falling too far out of it early. Can play with these at a big price if he gets a decent set-up today. #2 Red Outlaw steps up in class but has speed figures that fit and may be able to use this post position to good effect against likely favorite #7 Heart to Heart.
#8 Shared Belief has sprinted effectively in the past, has a clear edge on speed figures and class, and figures to be cranked for this end-of-the-year start. We feel that he can stay in early contention at 7F, that his best is best, and that we will be seeing something like his best today. If we don’t, the Baffert colts figure awfully hard to deny.
Highlight Horse: As a rule, we do not have high expectations for headstrong fillies in turf routes. But we’ll make an exception when the filly is lightly raced, has been training cooperatively, and is 20-1 on the morning line. #2 Satin Cinnamon’s last start is vastly better than it looks on paper. She fought her rider something awful in the early part of the race. Then she got wiped out in the lane. In her previous effort, she was rank and extremely wide and still earned a decent speed figure of 66. Rider Brice Blanc is generally very good at getting horses to calm down. We feel that there is some talent here and that Satin Cinnamon has a legitimate shot to get into the trifecta at a huge price.