Today in Racing, July 15, 2014

A couple of turf stakes at Arlington on Saturday that featured drastically different pace scenarios serve as great examples to demonstrate how our pace-infused speed figures work. In each case, the winner did not earn the best TFUS speed figure in the race.

The 7th race was the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap, and it was a paceless affair.  Avanzare was allowed to canter through opening fractions of 26.36 / 26.41 before picking up the pace to 24.87 / 24.64 to the mile.  Finnegans Wake ($13.20), despite his designation as being a ‘plodder’ based on his past races, changed tactics to stalk the leader in second, and then sprinted home in 22.99 to get the nod by a head over Admiral Kitten.  However, since the latter closed squarely against the pace grain from dead last, he got the best figure in the race. Here’s the race chart.

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Admiral Kitten’s figure was upgraded from a raw final time figure of 105.

Two races later, in the Grade 3 American Derby, for 3YOs at the slightly shorter distance of a mile and 3/16ths, it was a completely different story.  Longshot Ghostly Wonder zipped to the lead in an opening quarter of 23.60 with the British shipper Our Channel in hot pursuit.  From there, the race slowed to essentially a flat 25 second pace.  Our Channel battled on gamely but was unable to hold off the closing Divine Oath ($9.20). Small consolation to the British invader I’m sure, but Our Channel earned the better TFUS speed figure for his efforts; and note that 4th place finisher Schoolofhardrocks was also rewarded for being close to the early pace.  So, in this case, it was the horses in front early on who got the extra credit in the figures.

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More information on how we make our speed figures can be found here.

Also wanted to point out that you can now read the complete chart footnotes by clicking on the cleverly-named Footnote button.

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Divine Oath, winning his first stakes race, for Pletcher, is a son of Broken Vow whose third dam is the legendary Personal Ensign.  His best prior effort was a second place finish in the Lexington Stakes, the last-chance Derby points race run on the Poly (for the last time this year) at Keeneland.  That has turned out to be a productive race, if not actually for the Kentucky Derby nor any other dirt races, as one can see by looking at the subsequent races in our ‘continuum’ of race results.

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Mr. Speaker, after a miserable effort in his next race, bounced back to upset the Grade 1 Belmont Derby on July 5.  And Ami’s Holiday came back with two strong seconds, most recently a tough luck second after an extremely eventful trip in the Grade 1 Queen’s Plate on July 6.  And remember, by clicking on any of the continuum squares, you will be brought to the full result chart of that race; and so on….  More information on TimeformUS Result Charts can be found here.

– For those of you planning to visit Saratoga, we will be giving away a pair of grandstand seats almost every day of the meet!  More details on that here.

Also, don’t forget our irresistible summer specials in which we are selling TimeformUS PPs ridiculously cheap, thus driving our controller crazy.

The PPs are already available for Thursday and Friday’s cards at Del Mar.  Right now, you can get FREE PPs for the opening day Oceanside Stakes; as well as for the 6th race on Friday, a stakes-quality turf sprint allowance race.

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4 Responses to Today in Racing, July 15, 2014

  1. Arnie says:

    Preferences weight on? Weight off?
    What does that mean and how long has it been here?

    Arnie

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    • marc@tfus says:

      We added this feature yesterday, previously we were only offering “weight on” with no preference for the user. Our default setting will continue to be weight on, but a few customers have expressed that they don’t like weight carried by each horse to be already accounted for in the speed figures. More specifically–

      Weight on: We have done extensive studies, and we feel we have a good grasp on the effect of weight. Therefore, we adjust all of our figures for weight: both the weight carried in previous races and the weight assigned for today’s race. This allows you to ignore weight completely when using TFUS. Ignore the weights the horses carried in the past. Ignore the weights the horses have been assigned today. Both have already been accounted for in our figures. You can simply move on to other areas of handicapping.

      Weight off: However, we realize that weight is a controversial aspect of handicapping and that some of our customers have different opinions on how it should be handled. Indeed, some believe weight should be ignored altogether. Therefore, we are now presenting a “weight-free” option. Click on this option and you will instantly receive TFUS speed figures that are not adjusted for weight in any way. Neither the weight carried in previous starts nor the weight assigned today will be adjusted for in the speed figures. Choosing this option will allow you to adjust for weight (or ignore weight) as you please.

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  2. Mike D NYC says:

    Interesting and enlightening lessons to learn here. On the Admiral’s Kitten-Finnegan’s Wake example, for example, I understand how the fig is compiled and I agree with it. I wonder if Andrew Beyer makes his figs in a similar manner. I suppose he does. Do you know that that is basically what he does, too?

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    • marc@tfus says:

      You’ll have to ask Beyer, a deserving legend, but we differentiate our speed figures through the methodical integration of pace.

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Thoughts?