Saturday May 24 – Belmont Park
Scheduled post time 5:59pm ET
On TimeformUS Speed Figures, Here Comes Tommy (#9, 5-1) is something of a stick-out in this NY-bred N1x allowance race, having earned figures of 90 or above for each of his last three races. Here Comes Tommy is also 1-for-19 in his career, with seven runner-up finishes, and has never won on dirt. While he clearly can win this race, it does seem that he would need things to break perfectly along the way, which our Pace Projector indicates is unlikely to happen for him today.
With no shortage of alternatives in this 13-horse field, we think it is imperative to get a square price on whoever it is you are wagering on, and to us, one of the main candidates for that role is Chrisandlorisposse (#6, 8-1). Chrisandlorisposse is just 1-for-14 to this point in his career, and the lone win came when he was aggressively (and wisely) gunned to the lead over a speed-favoring track last October. With that being said, we think that he is in the best form of his career in 2014, and while his bandwagon may be emptying a bit after two recent losses as the favorite, we are going to stay on a little longer.
In his first start as a 4yo, on February 9, Chrisandlorisposse did a ton of racing on a fast pace (denoted by the pace figures, set below for the race leader, in red) with more than one challenger taking a shot at him, yet he turned them all away and survived, only to succumb to a perfect-trip closer right at the end. In his next start, he missed the break and was allowed to fall far back out of contention in last before mounting a strong rally that was too late. Finally, in his most recent effort, he was once again off the pace and trying to rally wide into a pace that held together, with the first three finishers up there all the way.
We have made enough excuses for Chrisandlorisposse recently, and we don’t intend to be making any more of them.
Chrisandlorisposse to win. Exactas with Salisbury Knight, Frost Jordan, Here Comes Tommy, and Beyond Empire.