Sunday, May 4 – Santa Anita
Scheduled local post time 2:39 pm
On a sleepy, anti-climactic Sunday card that finds us devoid of opinions, we are going to trudge along and act in accordance with the following principle: If you are obliged to give an opinion on a card that leaves you with no opinions, you might as well give your non-opinion opinion on a Grade 2.
So the Grade 2 Honeymoon it is.
The morning line favorite in this 9F grass race is Diversy Harbor (#5, 8-5 ML), who will be facing Nashoba’s Gold (#1, 9-5) for the third straight time. The series stands at one victory apiece. Diversy Harbor took more money in both races, and because she was so showy, nay, electrifying at a couple of points in their last meeting, we believe she will take more money today, too.
These two fillies seem to stand well above the rest of these on our data, and we like Nashoba’s Gold’s chances of taking the rubber match: not because she has more ability (we don’t think she does), but rather because we think that her superior early foot and post position give her a tactical advantage in here.
According to the TFUS Pace Projector, Nashoba’s Gold will be tucked in on the rail, in third place, during the early part of this race. And since the pace figures to be a moderate one, we envision Diversy Harbor again being obliged to make an early run from the outside. Nashoba’s Gold, meanwhile, figures to be able to suck along behind One More, which should allow her to delay her run until the stretch. During the key part of their previous meeting, Nashoba’s Gold outran the trip-burdened Diversy Harbor when it mattered most, and we believe that the projected softer trip for Nashoba’s Gold will allow her to repeat the feat today.
Win bet on Nashoba’s Gold.
Trifecta: Nashoba’s Gold (heavier) and Diversy Harbor with Nashoba’s Gold and Diversy Harbor with One More.