Friday April 25 – Aqueduct Top Play
Scheduled Local Post Time – 3:24pm
Race 5 at Aqueduct on Friday offers the chance to take a shot, at a square price, with a horse getting back to his proper surface.
First things first: Mental Iceberg is a NY-bred three-year-old gelding facing open company this afternoon, and he will be taking on a pair of favored colts saddled by a couple of guys named Clement and Pletcher. On the other hand, Mental Iceberg is listed at 8/1 on the ML, and to us, a price in that range represents value. Mental Iceberg raced on through the winter in N.Y. rather than heading south to get in a grass race or two, and, all things considered, he ran pretty well in some tough spots. But it really does seem that his best surface going forward is going to be turf. Sent off at a big price making his debut last September at Belmont Park, Mental Iceberg was confidently rated to the back of the field early, was unfazed when a rival ran up on his heels and clipped him on the backstretch, was confidently ridden into the stretch before edging wide, and then fired a good one down the outside to run down the leaders while looking well within himself. He was assigned a solid debut figure of 81 for that effort. Projecting natural improvement as a three-year-old, as he returns to the surface we believe he is meant for, we find him hard to resist at these odds.
Of the two favorites in the field, Belly of the Whale is listed at 7/5 for Christophe Clement, who excels off of layoffs and is the one to fear most.
The play: Win bet on Mental Iceberg. Save with Mental Iceberg underneath Belly of the Whale in exactas.