Race Ratings point to longshot second-time starter

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Wednesday April 2 – Aqueduct Top Play

Get Started on today’s TimeformUS racecard from Aqueduct

Race Seven
Scheduled Local Post Time – 4:26pm ET

aqu-r7Let’s take a shot with #8 Peaceful Talk (15-1 ML) in today’s 7th race.

Peaceful Talk’s career debut was a respectable one. He chased a fast pace and earned a solid figure of 81 in a 6f Maiden Special Weight race that was rated 13 points higher on our race ratings than today’s claiming race. Now he stretches out to a mile, and there’s reason to believe he can move forward off his career debut. We always expect second-time starters to improve. In Peaceful Talk’s case, the breeding screams distance, with juvenile champion War Pass on top and Theatrical underneath. It’s possible this horse moves up on a wet track, and it’s possible he will need turf to do his best running, but at the morning line odds, he warrants a long look here.

peaceful2

The Pace Projector puts him in a great tracking position behind the two early leaders. We have also seen situations where outside post positions do very well on the main track at Aqueduct in seven-and eight-furlong races.

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#3 Killer Crossover (9-5 ML) is the horse to beat, and we will hedge with him in the exacta. This horse has also been running against better company, and he drops to a maiden claimer for the first time in his career. He’s obviously being spotted to win, and it would be a surprise if he doesn’t make an impact on this race.

killer

 

The Play: #8 Peaceful Talk to win. Exacta box #3 and #8.

 

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