Improving Violet Hour Should Love the Cutback to 5 1/2 Furlongs

Friday February 28 – Aqueduct Top Play

Get Started on today’s TimeformUS racecard from Aqueduct

Race Five
Scheduled Local Post Time – 2:21 pm ET

#1 Violet Hour (7-2 ML) has a good shot to win the fifth today at Aqueduct.

In her last race, which took place 43 days ago, Violet Hour set a rapid pace in a one mile starter allowance before fading late. Both of her last two figures, a 91 and an 85, are better than many in today’s field have ever run, and she has run only five times in her brief career. This improving four-year-old filly should love the cutback to 5.5f, where she projects to have an inside trip up front in a race that favors horses on or near the lead. These are some powerful handicapping angles, and we would anticipate some erosion in her morning line price.

Screen Shot 2014-02-28 at 9.17.27 AM

If she doesn’t get the early lead, Violet Hour seems likely to end up in the “garden spot” in this short sprint, though it’s possible she and the morning line favorite, #8 Your Time Is Up, will engage in a virtual match race, in which case we like Violet Hour’s chances to gut out a dogfight in the lane. She’s by versatile sire Elusive Quality, and her damsire is a horse named AP Indy. Her pedigree rating of 97 is well deserved. She also has better late pace figures (59 vs 46) than Your Time Is Up, and she gets a 3-pound weight allowance from that one. Your Time Is Up is coming off a big career-top, and she figures to run reasonably well, but we wouldn’t be surprised to see her regress off that huge effort and come up a bit short to Violet Hour in what shapes up to be a good battle.

The only thing that gives us pause is the gap in Violet Hour’s work pattern, and the fact that she was entered for a tag in her US debut. It’s possible she is damaged goods. But even if she is bet down to as low as 2-1, we will take our chances that she’s a little too good for the rest of these.

The Play: #1 Violet Hour to win. Straight exacta #1 Violet Hour over #8 Your Time Is Up.

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