Monday February 17 – Aqueduct Top Play
Scheduled Local Post Time – 3:48 pm ET
After both cards were cancelled this weekend, New York punters will be chomping at the bit to play the local product this Presidents’ Day. If they are looking for a price horse, we believe Nuffsaid Nuffsaid rates a decent chance to find the winner’s circle this Monday in Aqueduct’s eighth race.
The prohibitive 4-5 morning line favorite in this 6f starter allowance is #10 Lion DNA. This mare has been very sharp lately, winning her last three races, the last two having been stakes race. Surely a horse with this profile must lay over this field of starter allowance fillies and mares, right? Not so fast. In addition to being stuck on the extreme outside, not necessarily a bad thing in one-turn races, Lion D N A figures to be close to a potentially hot pace, according to the Pace Projector. Additionally, this is Lion D N A’s fifth race in 73 days. It’s entirely possible that she’s due to throw in a dull effort after dominating the inner track for much of the late fall and winter. Then again, she did cost $1.5m as a yearling, so perhaps she is finally realizing the potential she was earmarked for in the auction ring.
Nonetheless, we’re going to take a long, hard look at Nuffsaid Nuffsaid. This mare is coming off a dull effort in her last race, which should help her odds. Prior to that, she defeated Lion D N A twice last fall in sprints. Nuffsaid Nuffsaid is a versatile mare who has won at a variety of distances, but we note she is two-for-four at 6f on the dirt and has also posted strong efforts at 6.5f and 7f. This hints at the likelihood that she will appreciate the cutback to one turn. Nuffsaid Nuffsaid is trained by Michelle Nevin, who is lethal at Aqueduct (95 rating) and especially lethal when handing the riding responsibilities to Jose Ortiz (100 T/J rating). Whereas the favorite is coming in off short rest, Nuffsaid Nuffsaid has been given 38 days off coming into this race. For these reasons, she offers value at her 6-1 morning line. Enough said.
The Wager: Nuffsaid Nuffsaid to win.