Scheduled post time 4:25pm EDT
A field of eight is assembled for the Sam Davis, and three horses very clearly standout from the rest. The three standouts are Harpoon, Noble Cornerstone, and Cousin Stephen.
The TimeformUS Preview Page paints a pretty picture for Harpoon (4/1 morning line). He owns the field’s best Spotlight Speed Figure, and the Pace Projector shows him isolated on a loose early lead in a race that favors horses on or near the early lead.
Harpoon’s trainer is Todd Pletcher, and he owns a 100 Trainer Rating overall and a 100 Rating at Tampa Bay Downs. This $500,000 yearling buy seems all set for a breakthrough performance.
The aforementioned main dangers to Harpoon are Noble Cornerstone and Cousin Stephen. Noble Cornerstone figures to get a very good trip, positioned second early in a race where the Pace Projector indicates a slow early pace. He’s demonstrated tactical versatility in his two starts, and his two speed figures of 88 are very competitive with this group. Trainer Wesley Ward has a 94 overall Trainer Rating and he’s won at 44% at Tampa Bay Downs from a limited sample.
The final contender is Cousin Stephen. He owns the field’s best last-out speed figure, and goes for trainer Chad Brown, who has a 100 overall Trainer Rating.
The rest of the horses in this field lack appeal for a wide variety of reasons.
Betting Strategy: Box Harpoon, Noble Cornerstone, and Cousin Stephen in exactas and trifectas.